Today, the Senate voted 52-47 to advance the Kaine-Paul War Powers resolution demanding withdrawal of U.S. forces from Venezuela. Five Republicans broke with their party: Rand Paul, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Todd Young, and Josh Hawley.
Hours later, the House passed ACA subsidies 230-196—seventeen Republicans defying Johnson to extend health coverage for millions.
Two chambers. Two demands. And one pattern: Mike Johnson can’t hold his caucus on anything except enabling undeclared war.
The Contradiction
After a classified briefing this week, Johnson told reporters: “We do not have U.S. armed forces in Venezuela, and we are not occupying that country... We don’t expect troops on the ground.”
In a New York Times interview published today, Trump said the U.S. would run Venezuela for “much longer” than a year. “We’re going to be using oil, and we’re going to be taking oil.”
15,000 troops. 150+ aircraft. A captured head of state. A president promising extended occupation and oil extraction. And the Speaker claiming “we are not occupying that country.”
One of them is lying.
What Johnson Whipped For
On December 17, 2025—the same day four Republicans signed the ACA discharge petition—the House voted on two resolutions to stop Trump’s unauthorized military strikes against Venezuela. The votes happened while Trump was delivering a primetime televised address. Most of America wasn’t watching Congress.
Johnson made his position clear before the votes. “Despite the claims by some of my colleagues, under the War Powers Act, there is no requirement for prior Congressional approval or prior notification,” he told reporters. He called the strikes “precise and limited” and argued that “military action of this nature does not require congressional authorization.”
The Speaker was providing cover. His caucus followed.
Rep. Gregory Meeks, ranking Democrat on House Foreign Affairs, introduced the first resolution to halt the boat strikes. On the floor, Rep. Brian Mast attacked him, suggesting Meeks didn’t care about the nearly 200 overdose deaths in his district.
Meeks responded with the fact the administration was hiding: Venezuela isn’t a major source of fentanyl. The intercepted boats carried cocaine bound for Europe—not the drug driving American overdose deaths. Then he asked a question no Republican would answer:
“I’m still waiting to hear why major drug dealers—two major drug dealers—were pardoned by the president of the United States. I’ll wait.”
He was referring to former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, convicted of trafficking over 400 tons of cocaine and sentenced to 45 years, pardoned by Trump on December 1. And Ross Ulbricht, founder of the darknet Silk Road network, pardoned in January. No Republican responded.
Rep. Jim McGovern introduced the second resolution, targeting the broader Venezuela hostilities:
“I think it’s immoral—not just a strategic failure, but a moral failure—that we have a president beating the drums of war without so much as a vote from the House of Representatives.”
“At least George Bush had the decency to come to Congress for approval in 2002. Don’t the American people deserve that respect today?”
“It’s easy to get into a war. It’s hard as hell to get out of war.”
Three Republicans crossed party lines to vote with McGovern: Thomas Massie, Don Bacon, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. One Democrat—Henry Cuellar—voted against.
The Meeks resolution failed 210-216. The McGovern resolution failed 211-213.
Both failed by single digits. Congress blessed an undeclared war.
Behind the scenes, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was working the phones. Senator Mike Lee had posted skeptically: “I look forward to learning what, if anything, might constitutionally justify this action in the absence of a declaration of war.” After a call with Rubio, Lee said he was now “comfortable.”
At the time of those votes, U.S. military strikes had killed at least 100 people. No declaration of war. No authorization for use of military force. No evidence presented that the targeted vessels were actually carrying drugs to America.
Johnson couldn’t stop the ACA vote. He couldn’t make the DOJ follow the Epstein law. But when it came to enabling an unauthorized war that had already killed 100 people—that vote, he won.
The Timeline
September 2, 2025: First U.S. military strikes on vessels in the Caribbean, allegedly targeting Venezuelan drug traffickers.
November 2, 2025: The 60-day War Powers limit expires. Under the law, the president must withdraw forces unless Congress authorizes.
November 6, 2025: Senate War Powers resolution fails 49-51. Only two Republicans—Murkowski and Paul—vote yes.
December 17, 2025: House votes on two War Powers resolutions. Both fail. 100+ dead.
January 3, 2026: Full invasion. Operation Absolute Resolve. Maduro captured within four hours.
January 8, 2026: Senate advances War Powers resolution 52-47. Five Republicans break ranks.
From first strike to full invasion: four months. Congressional authorization: none.
The Death Toll
The administration claimed the strikes targeted “narco-terrorists” trafficking fentanyl. Navy reports indicate the intercepted vessels carried cocaine bound for Europe—not fentanyl bound for America.
Senator Rand Paul shared a letter from the Coast Guard this week: of 212 vessel interdictions between September 2024 and October 2025, 41 boats had “no illicit contraband on board when interdicted.” In the Caribbean specifically, 14 of 69 interdicted vessels had no contraband—and 11 of those “did not appear to commit any federal criminal offense.”
By December 17, when Congress voted: 29 vessels struck, 100+ killed, zero public evidence the boats carried drugs to America.
By January 3: 33 vessels struck, 112+ killed, 15,000 troops deployed.
The stated justification didn’t match the evidence. Congress voted anyway.
What Johnson Enabled
When the House adjourned for Christmas, it left behind:
An undeclared war 47 days past the War Powers limit
Over 100 people killed without congressional authorization
No public evidence the strikes served their stated purpose
A precedent that presidents can wage war indefinitely without approval
Two weeks later, Trump launched the largest U.S. military operation in Latin America since Panama. No declaration of war. No AUMF. No congressional debate.
Johnson’s response: “Today’s military action in Venezuela was a decisive and justified operation that will protect American lives.”
He added: “The Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war; that is true. But it also vests the president of the United States with vast authorities as commander-in-chief.”
Four UN human rights experts condemned the naval blockade as “illegal armed aggression,” stating: “There is no right to enforce unilateral sanctions through an armed blockade.”
Congress had two chances to assert its constitutional authority. Johnson whipped both votes to ensure it didn’t. Then he provided the talking points to justify what came next.
The House Math Today
The McGovern resolution failed 211-213 in December. Since then, Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) died. Johnson’s margin is now 218-213. He can lose exactly one vote—and Thomas Massie regularly defects on War Powers issues.
If the Kaine-Paul resolution passes the Senate and reaches the House floor, Johnson faces a choice: allow a vote and risk losing, block the vote and own the obstruction, or whip against it and expose which Republicans will defend an undeclared occupation.
The Senate just demonstrated bipartisan support exists. Five Republicans—including Hawley, who rarely breaks with Trump—voted to advance.
The question is whether Johnson will let the House vote at all.
The Pattern Crystallizes
This is Part 3 of a 5-part series on Mike Johnson’s January.
Part 1 (ACA): Johnson couldn’t stop the vote. Today it passed 230-196, with seventeen Republicans defying him. He delayed it until after the subsidies expired, ensuring maximum harm—then lost anyway.
Part 2 (Epstein): Johnson couldn’t stop the vote. He hasn’t enforced the law that 427 members of Congress passed.
The pattern: when Congress tries to help Americans, Johnson delays—then loses. When Congress demands transparency, Johnson doesn’t enforce. When the executive branch wants to wage war, Johnson delivers. When the war becomes undeniable, Johnson lies about what’s happening.
He can’t pass his own agenda. He can’t stop the opposition’s. But he can enable the administration’s military operations without legal authorization.
And when the Senate starts asserting itself, Johnson is the last line of defense for the administration.
Tomorrow: Johnson’s January, Part 4—Shutdown: The Deal That Solved Nothing
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Sources
CBS News: Senate advances war powers resolution
The Hill: Trump says US could control Venezuela ‘much longer’ than a year
Al Jazeera: Trump says US role in Venezuela could last for years
NOLA.com: Mike Johnson responds to military action
CBS News: House War Powers votes fail
The Intercept: Congress Squanders Last Chance
Al Jazeera: UN experts condemn blockade
Common Dreams: House Republicans Kill Venezuela War Powers Resolutions
Anadolu Agency: US ‘not occupying’ Venezuela: House Speaker Johnson